The S&P 500 has now rallied +41% in ten weeks. This rally is greater in percent terms than the -36% plunge that took place in 5 weeks and has taken place during some of the worst reported economic data in US history.
Looking back, there are of course many differences to the other two big financial crises of the past 20 years, but one of the most striking to me is the increase in velocity. The dotcom crash unfolded in March 2000 and lasted for 929 days with equities losing 48.6% in aggregate. This corresponds to a 1.6% average loss per month. The Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 went on for 517 days at a 55.2% loss. The average losses per month were 3.2%, so twice as fast as the previous one. This time around with the coronavirus led meltdown, the losses happening in just one month, which is 20 times faster than the dotcom crash and 10 times faster than the financial crisis of 2008.
We all have experienced first hand how the COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally affected how we live, do business, and invest. This Opalesque Investor Roundtable, sponsored by Weaver, is looking at how leading investors experience these events in 2020 and how they react to it. Of course, at some point, we&’ll see a recovery from the global economic impact of this coronavirus, but the world will have changed with a new normal emerging – but how will that look like?
The future is here
The long-term impact of the 2020 pandemic is going to be the dramatic acceleration of people thinking long-term and starting to really bring about a different future. Think back to January and ask yourself whether you could have conceived any way at all to get the entire world – in 30 days – to start using Zoom for business meetings or deal with almost all commercial airplanes being grounded. You couldn&’t have figured out a way to do it. But now, all of a sudden, it&’s here.
After the 1918 pandemic we had the roaring 20s. Will we be entering something similar, or maybe a cross between what happened in Japan in the 90s: A time with more innovation, more art, more science?
Learn from:
- Peter Fletcher, Managing Director, PHF Capital; Founder & Chairman, Club b
- David S. Rose, Managing Partner, Rose Tech Ventures; CEO, Gust
- Lisa Head, Tax Partner, Weaver
- Cedric Kohler, Head of Advisory, Fundana
- Christopher Beres, Vice President, Investment Oversight, Nuveen
Insights about:
- Which structural instabilities “baked in to the market, but not readily apparent” is the current crisis revealing now? (page 12-13, 22)
- How and why a large hedge fund investor managed to go through this crisis relatively serenely (page 7,8)
- Valuations in private funds vs. public funds: Who&’s right? (page 14)
- Hedging and Diversification. What&’s the best hedge? CTAs and trend following strategies (page 15)
- What is the calculus for angel and (seed) venture capital investors today? (page 8,9)
- Exponential technologies (page 13, 25-26), The single biggest result of the pandemic (page 13, 20-21)
- Where is real estate going? Challenges and pockets of growth (page 11-12)
- Fundraising in 2020: Why the current environment is not too bad for emerging
managers but fundraising a challenge, opportunities for L/S equity (page 9-11, 18-19, - The World of Family Offices (FO) in 2020:
- The top six macro and geopolitical themes for single family offices (page 16-17, 19-20). Concerns about debt and inflation (page 11, 24)
- How FO invest, FOs to seed hedge funds again (page 11, 19)
- Why ESG finally took off in the US. 80% of hedge fund managers have nothing within the ESG space: Problem & opportunity. ESG in the early stage world (page 22-24)
- Facial recognition, globalization, and how to invest in a world where “if something can be done, it will be done” (page 24-26)
